Polymarket· tech· open· settles 2027-06-30

Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?

Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 50¢

The catch

Score is checked the day after debut, not at debut, and only the first qualifying model counts.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next SpaceXAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.” — market rules ↗

Pays out only if

A Grok model version 4.7 or higher appears on Arena.AI Leaderboard with score at least 1460 the day after debut.
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next SpaceXAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.” — market rules ↗
Has to happen before July 1, 2027
“If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".” — market rules ↗
Counts as done when: Score displayed on leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET the day after model first appears
“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next SpaceXAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.” — market rules ↗
Decided by: Arena.AI Leaderboard, Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
“The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control.” — market rules ↗

Does not count

Models with version designation below 4.7 (e.g., Grok 4.6)
“models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.” — market rules ↗
Models whose name does not include 'Grok'
“models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.” — market rules ↗
Separately numbered product lines like Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine
“Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.” — market rules ↗
Version numbers of Grok app, website, or other products that don't correspond to a new underlying model
“Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.” — market rules ↗

Watch out

WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
NOTEAn outside data source decides, with a named backup
“The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control.” — market rules ↗

Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.

The rules, in plain English

This market resolves Yes if the next Grok model version 4.7 or higher added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard has a score of at least 1460 at noon ET the day after it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise it resolves No. A qualifying model must have "Grok" in its name and be version 4.7 or higher (like Grok 4.7, Grok 5, grok-4.7-high, etc.), regardless of capitalization or extra words. Models below version 4.7 (like Grok 4.6) don't qualify. Models without "Grok" in the name don't qualify. Separate product lines like Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine don't qualify. Version numbers for the Grok app or website that don't correspond to a new model don't qualify. The score comes from the "Score" column under "Text Arena | Overall" at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off. Only the displayed score in that column counts, not any underlying data. Models marked "AutoEval" don't count as added to the leaderboard. If multiple models are added on the same day, the highest-scoring one is used. Models added the day after the first qualifying model don't count. If a model is removed from the leaderboard before noon ET the day after it first appears, it doesn't qualify. A model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether it was previously released or available doesn't matter. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If unavailable at noon ET the day after the model debuts, use the first time it becomes available on the leaderboard. If it stays unavailable through the seventh day after debut, or if no qualifying model appears by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves No.

What the rules leave open

What constitutes 'SpaceXAI' - is this a typo for 'xAI' or does it require the model to be explicitly labeled as from SpaceXAI?
closest the rules come: “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next SpaceXAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.” — market rules ↗
How to determine version number for models with ambiguous naming (e.g., 'Grok-2025-v5' - is this version 5 or something else?)
closest the rules come: “A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.” — market rules ↗
If multiple models debut on the same day with different scores, and the highest-scoring one is removed before noon the next day, does the second-highest count?
closest the rules come: “If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution.” — market rules ↗

Original rules text

Read from the market rules ↗.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next SpaceXAI Grok model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Source ↗

Get the weekly five

The five worst-worded open markets, every Sunday.