Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?
The catch
Market resolves based on party nominee, not specific candidates; independents don't count as Republican.
“Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election.
“This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on November 3, 2026
“In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: when all three sources call the race or official certification
“This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.” · market rules ↗Decided by: Associated Press, Fox News, NBC
“The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Independent candidates do not count as Republican even if affiliated with the party
“Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.” · market rules ↗Third-party candidates (Green, Libertarian) do not count as Republican
“Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.” · market rules ↗- A Republican-affiliated candidate runs as an independent and winsour reading
- A popular Republican politician switches to independent status before election day and winsour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-10-02. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves based on who wins the 2026 Florida governor election. A candidate represents a party if they are that party's official nominee. Third-party candidates like Greens, Libertarians, or independents may be added later. Candidates running as independents do not count as Democrat or Republican, even if they have party ties. Candidate names may be listed for convenience. If a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the name will be updated and the market resolves based on the replacement. The market resolves when Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three don't call it for the same candidate, it resolves based on official certification.
What the rules leave open
The exact date of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election is not specified
closest the rules come: “In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.” · market rules ↗Which body or official provides the 'official certification' used as fallback is not specified
closest the rules come: “If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.” · market rules ↗