Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 59¢
The catch
Resolves only when all three sources (AP, Fox, NBC) call for the same candidate.
“This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Republican party nominee wins the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate election.
“This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on November 3, 2026
“This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: when all three sources call the race for the same candidate, or official certification
“This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.” · market rules ↗Decided by: Associated Press, Fox News, NBC
“The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Independent candidates are excluded even if they have party affiliation
“Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.” · market rules ↗- Republican wins but only two of the three sources call itour reading
- Republican-affiliated independent wins the electionour reading
- Republican leads in unofficial results but certification goes to Democratour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-10-02. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves based on who wins the 2026 Iowa U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. A candidate represents a party if they are that party's nominee. Independent or third-party candidates may be added later. Independents do not count as Democrat or Republican even if they have party ties. Candidate names may be listed for convenience. If a nominee is replaced before election day, the name will be updated and the market resolves based on the replacement. The market resolves when Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If they don't all agree, it resolves based on official certification.
What the rules leave open
Which body or official performs the 'official certification' used as fallback
closest the rules come: “If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.” · market rules ↗What happens if a nominee is replaced after election day but before resolution
closest the rules come: “In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.” · market rules ↗