Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
The catch
Market resolves based on party nominee, not specific named candidates.
“The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Republican party nominee wins the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election.
“This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on November 3, 2026
“This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: when all three sources call the race or official certification
“This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.” · market rules ↗Decided by: Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, official certification
“The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Independent candidates with Republican affiliation do not count as Republican nominees
“Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.” · market rules ↗- A Republican-affiliated candidate runs as an independent and winsour reading
- The Republican nominee wins the popular vote but the election is contested and not certifiedour reading
- Two of the three sources call it for the Republican but the third doesn't, and official certification goes differentlyour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-10-02. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves based on who wins the 2026 Ohio governor election. A candidate represents a party if they are that party's nominee. Other candidates like Greens, Libertarians, or independents may be added later. Candidates running as independents don't count as Democrat or Republican, even if they have party ties. Candidate names may be listed for convenience. If a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the name will be updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee. The market uses Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC as sources. It resolves when all three call the race for the same candidate. If they don't all call it for the same candidate, it resolves based on official certification.
What the rules leave open
What happens if the Republican nominee withdraws or dies after election day but before resolution
closest the rules come: “In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.” · market rules ↗Which official body's certification counts as the official certification
closest the rules come: “If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.” · market rules ↗How long to wait for all three sources to call the race before falling back to official certification
closest the rules come: “This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.” · market rules ↗