Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
The catch
Resolves only when all three sources agree, not when first source calls it.
“This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Republican nominee wins the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election.
“This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on November 3, 2026
“This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: When all three sources call the race or official certification
“This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.” · market rules ↗Decided by: Associated Press, Fox News, NBC
“The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Independent candidates do not count as Republican even if affiliated with the party
“Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.” · market rules ↗- A Republican-affiliated independent wins the electionour reading
- One or two sources call it for Republicans but not all three, and official certification goes differentlyour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-10-02. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves based on who wins the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election scheduled for November 3, including any run-offs. A candidate represents a party if they are that party's nominee. Independent candidates and third-party candidates (Green, Libertarian, etc.) may be added later. Independents do not count as Democrat or Republican even if they have party affiliations. Candidate names in the contract are for convenience. If a named candidate is replaced before election day, the name will be updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee. The market resolves when Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate. If all three don't call it for the same candidate, it resolves based on official certification.
What the rules leave open
Which body or official provides the 'official certification' used as fallback
closest the rules come: “If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.” · market rules ↗