Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
The catch
Only the party nominee wins; independents with party affiliation don't count.
“Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Republican party nominee wins the 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election.
“This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on November 3, 2026
“This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: when all three sources call the race or official certification
“This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.” · market rules ↗Decided by: Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, official certification
“The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Independents with Republican affiliation do not count as Republican wins
“Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.” · market rules ↗- A Republican-affiliated candidate runs as an independent and winsour reading
- A Republican wins the popular vote but the election is contested and not certifiedour reading
- Two of the three sources call it for Republicans but the third doesn't, and official certification is delayedour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-10-02. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves based on who wins the 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. A candidate represents a party if they are that party's nominee. Other candidates like Greens, Libertarians, or independents may be added later. Candidates running as independents don't count as Democrat or Republican, even if they have party ties. Candidate names may be listed for convenience. If a named candidate is replaced before election day, the name will be updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee. The market uses Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC as sources. It resolves when all three call the race for the same candidate. If they don't all agree, it resolves based on official certification.
What the rules leave open
What happens if the official certification is also delayed or contested indefinitely?
closest the rules come: “If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.” · market rules ↗What is the exact date of the 2026 midterm election?
closest the rules come: “This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.” · market rules ↗