Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?
The catch
Market resolves based on party nominee, not specific candidates named in the contract.
“The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Republican party nominee wins the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
“This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on November 3, 2026
“This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: when all three sources call the race for the same candidate, or official certification
“This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.” · market rules ↗Decided by: Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, official certification
“The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Independent candidates do not count as Republican even if they have Republican affiliation
“Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.” · market rules ↗- A Republican-affiliated candidate runs as an independent and winsour reading
- A named Republican candidate withdraws and is replaced, but traders assume the market is about the original candidateour reading
- Two of the three news sources call the race for the Republican but the third does not, and official certification goes differentlyour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-10-02. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves based on who wins the 2026 Texas governor election. A candidate represents a party if they are that party's nominee. Other candidates like Greens, Libertarians, or independents may be added later. Candidates running as independents do not count as Democrat or Republican, even if they have ties to those parties. Candidate names may be listed for convenience. If a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the name will be updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee. The market uses Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC as sources. It resolves once all three call the race for the same candidate. If all three don't call it for the same candidate, it resolves based on official certification.
What the rules leave open
What is the exact date of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election
closest the rules come: “This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.” · market rules ↗Which body or official provides the 'official certification' used as fallback
closest the rules come: “If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.” · market rules ↗How long to wait for all three sources to call the race before using official certification
closest the rules come: “This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.” · market rules ↗