Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate at the October meeting?
The catch
Emergency rate changes before the meeting don't count; only the October meeting decision matters.
“Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee announces no change to the policy repo rate at its October 2026 meeting.
“This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the policy repo rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on October 7, 2026
“The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 5 to 7, 2026, with the decision to be announced on October 7, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422).” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: announcement of the decision from the October 2026 meeting
“This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.” · market rules ↗Decided by: Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee
“The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 5 to 7, 2026, with the decision to be announced on October 7, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422).” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Emergency changes to the policy repo rate not resulting from the October 2026 meeting
“Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.” · market rules ↗Changes announced after the start of the next scheduled meeting if the October meeting is postponed
“If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.” · market rules ↗- The RBI makes an emergency rate change before the October meetingour reading
- The October meeting is postponed beyond the next scheduled meetingour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves based on the change in basis points to the policy repo rate from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee's October 2026 meeting, compared to the level before the meeting. The resolution source is official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 5 to 7, 2026, with the decision announced on October 7, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar. The market may resolve as soon as the statement or release with relevant data is issued. If the rate has an upper and lower bound, the change to the upper bound is used. If the rate changes to a level not shown in the options, the change will be rounded: increases or decreases less than 25 bps round to 25 bps; increases or decreases greater than 25 bps round to the nearest 25 bps, rounding away from zero when equidistant. Options labeled "Increase" or "Decrease" include rate changes of any size. If the meeting is postponed to before the next scheduled meeting, this market resolves based on that postponed meeting. If the meeting is cancelled or postponed so no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market resolves to "No Change." Emergency changes to the rate not from the specified meeting will not be considered.
What the rules leave open
What happens if the policy repo rate is changed between now and the October meeting by a source other than an emergency change
closest the rules come: “Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.” · market rules ↗When exactly the next scheduled meeting starts (used to determine if a postponed meeting still counts)
closest the rules come: “If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.” · market rules ↗