Sharpbook
Polymarket· economy· open· settles 2026-09-25

Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be at least 58.0 in September?

Open on Polymarket ↗Yes last at 26¢

The catch

  • Only the final release counts; preliminary results don't count.
    “This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.” · market rules ↗

Pays out only if

  • The University of Michigan reports a final Consumer Sentiment index of at least 58.0 for September 2026.
    “This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for September 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.” · market rules ↗
  • Has to happen during September 2026
    “This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for September 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.” · market rules ↗
  • Counts as done when: final release published by University of Michigan
    “This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for September 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.” · market rules ↗
  • Decided by: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers
    “The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for September 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on September 25, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET.” · market rules ↗

Does not count

  • Preliminary results for September 2026 do not count.
    “This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.” · market rules ↗
  • Preliminary September 2026 reading is at least 58.0 but final reading is below 58.0our reading
  • Final reading rounds to 58.0 but is actually 57.95 (since precision is to one decimal)our reading
  • Data is delayed and August 2026 final reading is used instead, which is below 58.0our reading

Watch out

  • WATCHOne publication decides the outcome
    “The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for September 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on September 25, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET.” · market rules ↗
  • WATCHSome obvious wins don't count

Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.

The rules, in plain English

This market is about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for September 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. The market resolves to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for September 2026, as reported in the final release. The resolution source is the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for September 2026 from their website, scheduled for September 25, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. The market resolves when this data is released. Note: Only the final results for September count; preliminary results don't count. Note: The index is reported to one decimal point (like 44.8), and that's the precision used for resolution. If the University of Michigan doesn't release the data on the scheduled date, the market may stay open until the next scheduled Surveys of Consumers report. If the data still isn't released by then, the market resolves using the most recent previous month's data.

What the rules leave open

  • What happens if the University of Michigan stops publishing the Index of Consumer Sentiment entirely before September 2026?
    closest the rules come: “If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.” · market rules ↗