Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 55.0 and 57.9 in September?
The catch
Only the final release counts; preliminary results don't count.
“This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The University of Michigan reports a final Consumer Sentiment index between 55.0 and 57.9 for September 2026.
“This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for September 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.” — market rules ↗Has to happen during September 2026
“This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for September 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: final release published by University of Michigan
“This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.” — market rules ↗Decided by: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers
“The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for September 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on September 25, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET.” — market rules ↗
Does not count
Preliminary results for September 2026
“This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered.” — market rules ↗- The preliminary September 2026 reading falls in the 55.0-57.9 range but the final reading does notour reading
- The final reading is 54.95 which rounds to 55.0 but is reported as 54.9our reading
- The final reading is 58.0 (just outside the upper bound)our reading
Watch out
WATCHOne publication decides the outcome
“The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for September 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on September 25, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET.” — market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market is about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for September 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. The market will resolve to the bracket that contains the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for September 2026, as reported in the final release. The resolution source is the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for September 2026, scheduled for September 25, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. The market will resolve when this data is released. Note: Only the final results for September count; preliminary results don't count. Note: The index is reported to one decimal point (like 44.8), and that's the precision used for resolution. If the University of Michigan doesn't release the data on the scheduled date, the market may stay open until the next scheduled Surveys of Consumers report. If the data still isn't released by then, the market will resolve using the most recent previous month with available data.
What the rules leave open
Whether the bracket is inclusive of 55.0 and 57.9 or exclusive at one or both ends
closest the rules come: “This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for September 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release.” — market rules ↗What happens if the University of Michigan changes its methodology or discontinues the index
closest the rules come: “If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.” — market rules ↗