Will Yashar win 22-24% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
The catch
Joint lists or merged parties count all votes, not just Yashar's individual share.
“If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Yashar party wins between 22% and 24% of valid votes in the 2026 Israeli Knesset elections.
“This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before November 1, 2027
“If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: election results definitively known
“If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.” · market rules ↗Decided by: consensus of credible reporting, Central Elections Committee of Israel
“This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Invalid votes are not counted in the percentage calculation
“The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election.” · market rules ↗- Yashar wins 22% as part of a joint list with another party, but Yashar's individual contribution to the joint list is only 15%our reading
- Yashar merges with another party and the merged entity wins 23%, but traders expected only Yashar's pre-merger support to countour reading
- Yashar wins exactly 22.0% or 24.0% and the market resolves to the higher bracket (22-24%), not the adjacent oneour reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market resolves based on the percentage of the national vote won by the Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage is calculated as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes are counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Yashar runs as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party before the election, all votes won by the merged party, or any joint candidate list it runs on, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market resolves to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market resolves to the lowest range bracket. This market resolves based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market resolves based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel.
What the rules leave open
Whether the expected election date of October 27, 2026 is binding or if the market covers elections held on a different date
closest the rules come: “Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.” · market rules ↗Whether preliminary results or only final certified results count as 'definitively known'
closest the rules come: “If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.” · market rules ↗What constitutes a 'merger' versus a 'joint candidate list' for purposes of vote counting
closest the rules come: “If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.” · market rules ↗